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Market Outlook for Jan 2nd – Jan 5th 2024

Happy Tuesday TTU and Happy New Year!

SPY Seasonality for the beginning of the year

You can see that we are a little choppy the first few days of the year but we usually are up after 1-2 weeks into the year. I would guess this would be like what happens this year.
The thing to understand is EVERYONE jumped on the bull wagon – this often leads to a pullback to shake out the late people. Will this happen in Jan or Feb? I don’t know but I would guess Feb. Be prepared for a 5-10% garden variety pull back and look for that pull back as an opportunity when it comes.
 
Here is my ICB watchlists 
This is my yearly – there are a lot because we have been in a 2-year consolidation that we are just now breaking out of – https://www.tc2000.com/~SIYZTI
 
Quarterly there wasn’t a lot I liked so not watching this one
Monthly there are a few I like and will watch including MSFT – https://www.tc2000.com/~pQn4Qc
 
Weekly we have A LOT because the last couple weeks of the year are mainly sideways. I have a ton setup for auto buys/shorts like AMZN DDOG ADBE SHOP PYPL and more. I won’t fight price action but be aware we can have a lot of false signals in the beginning of the year because of the low volume that ended the year.  https://www.tc2000.com/~YcSdmv
 
As for TTM setups – there are a ton as well because of the consolidation.
Favorites are MSFT – Already in and willing to add

NOW

V

PYPL with a great R/R setup here – 
Honorable mentions – BAX, ADBE, CI, SWK and NFLX – All of which I could play!

TSLA Analysis from TomTom
We are primed for TSLA delivery numbers. This first chart is on the daily and includes the previous volume profile we will need to attack if we get a beat on YoY and quarterly delivery numbers. This will set up a run-up to recent highs and potential breakthroughs above 278 as part of the upcoming ER. The PM chart has already touched the channel’s lower trendline that started on 11/15. The reverse will happen if we see a miss. I will upload another chart for what I am looking at for the week and month into ER once we receive the numbers.

 
SPY Analysis from JJ

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