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Market Outlook for Jan 8th – Jan 12th 2024

Happy Monday TTU!!

This week we have SHOP, PYPL, LEN and NVDA on watch for possible REV strats – 1-2d-2u on the weekly   I will be buying more AMZN – I will play shares and options out past Earnings date  
If we break over 147 is a breakdown and reclaim
IF we pull back to 142-143 that is a bounceable support area.
138.50 would equal a LONG-TERM BUY  
I decided to put in a stop loss at BREAKEVEN on PYPL shares I bought last week. IF it stops me out I will re attack with fresh eyes.  
AMD historically doesn’t perform well during CES
ALL the bank plays – BAC, JPM and GS– we talked about last week are working perfectly (thanks to whomever brought these up) – realize that as we get closer to the actual earnings date, we start to go sideways historically – good if you STO bad if you BTO – use the earnings spreadsheet for the data  
I am looking for a way to add to my LT AXP play with a shorter time frame play like the 2H TTM             AXP has a 92% pos occ for run into ER +2 weeks out which is the 12th  

I marked up the QQQ and SPY
https://www.tc2000.com/~9FKKDK QQQ
https://www.tc2000.com/~BbfypF SPY  
I think if 467 begins to break down we will come down to 464 and possible 460-462 area. Just remember we have a huge catalyst coming up – CPI – so will likely drive the move.

Up and Down Grades from Gtrader
Stock & PT Upgrades = AMD, DASH, MET, AAL, ENPH, TOL, COIN, V, MA, MBLY
stock Downgrades = FSLR, AXP, WFC, OKTA, SHW, LUV
 
 $SPY Trade Plan for 1/8/24 
Bullish Scenario:
Aim for a break above $469.87 – $470.42.
Watch for a break above $472.21.
Expect a pullback into the $469.81 area and push above $471.21.
If a pullback on a shorter timeframe occurs and this high is broken, anticipate confirmation for the timeframe and prepare for a rally into $472.24, $473.21, $475.29, $477.
Neutral Stance:
Observe if $SPY can rally to the YTD AVWAP at $469.86.
Look for a retrace back to the $468.28 2-day AVWAP.
Monitor for this area to hold and for a break above $469.87.
Bearish Scenario:
If $SPY rallies and rejects the $469.81, prepare for a break below $468.21.
Upon breaking below, watch for a lower low and lower high indicating a decline to $467.59.
If $SPY breaks below $467.59, anticipate further decline into $465.88, $461.66, $457.90, $456.23.
TSLA Analysis from TomTom Wednesday, TSLA will be 2 weeks from ER on 1/24/24. I started my position on the touch of 235.02 but have opportunities to add down to 228.39. I would prefer to see a bullish pattern form at or above 231.35. We could continue to see chop between 241.32 down to 235/231 without a news catalyst until Thursday and Friday red folders to assist in the 2 week out metrics in TSLA. If we get mixed data, we could get the dip down to 231 before seeing a gradual climb ahead of ER. I will be scalping patterns to assist in my position build ahead of ER. I do want to see TSLA stay above 231 but will hold for a flash down below with a stop at 228. My ultimate goal is to build my position with a cost basis below 228 for the ER run into play.

This Weeks Full Analysis from Donald:

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