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Market Outlook for May 13th – May 17th 2024

The chart on the right shows us what happens in election years when the year before was +10% you can see we actually push up and through then begin a sell off in feb and bottom out in march.

The one on the left shows the same thing when a sitting president is running

I talked to you guys about this a few weeks ago but I want to go over it again because it is starting to happen. Inventories are at lows and a restocking should begin – this can and will help IMO is a rotation into value and dividends

You can see growth vs value is expensive, so I am expecting this rotation to continue.  Companies like RBLX help this out with their Earnings Reports.

This is a slide from a couple weeks ago – VALUE VALUE VALUE – I do think we will have companies that will continue to grow AKA NVDA – but I think there are many opportunities under the radar in value.

You can see that value is still underweight with active managers. So, We can all watch the shiny objects and try to time them, Or we can find good value companies and have a better % chance of winning – What worked well in the last couple weeks? JPM, COST AXP etc

Can anyone tell me what this means? When Copper starts flying what is usually happening in the economy?

When copper prices start to rise, it is typically an indicator that the economy is growing or recovering.

WHO IS THE WORLDS LARGEST COPPER CONSUMER?

CHINA CHINA CHINA

Check out this breakout on the Hang Seng

I am sure nobody knows this as I have kept this secret close to the vest…but I am a believer in a company called BABA located in CHINA!

We got the breakout of the multi year downtrend and a perfect retest.  If we pull to 75 I will add back what I sold into this breakout. IF it doesn’t pull that far I am still LOADED in baba

over the previous 10 days, more than 3 stocks advanced for every 1 that declined. Every time that’s happened since 1997, it ended a bear market.

Remember me showing you the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator at the beginning of the month in November? I Said it has amazing returns when this happens and its time to get LONG AND STRONG BABY – you can see the return so far have been amazing!

We almost got another one!!! Count the days in between here and you can see it was 13 instead of 10!

If a technical signal degrades markedly with a slight change in parameters, it is not robust and should be discounted. It doesn’t represent underlying dynamics, just a data-mined novelty – so how does the ZBT look using 13 days instead of 10? While not as good as 10 it still looks amazing! LONG AND STRONG BABY

I wanted to show you guys an example of the importance of not trying to GUESS what the market is doing and just allow the market to GIVE YOU whatever it can give you!

This was a slide from 2 weeks ago When I said its time to start trying to bounce!

This was a slide from last week. I told you guys I still had partial positions in certain stocks and the SPY – I asked if anyone was still holding anything from the dip buys… So let me ask again! Are you still holding ANYTHING we bought on these dips?

I had no idea if we were going to reject at 515,518, 520, or if we are going to continue this push into new highs. ALL I DID WAS PREPARE MYSELF TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE PUSH AND KEEP MYSELF SAFE!

If you are not holding something from the dip buys… ask yourself WHY NOT!! Then figure out how you can take advantage of continued bull movement. That’s what you do in a BULL MARKET.

PANW has earnings coming up and I WILL BE PLAYING through earnings! Playing through earnings is risky if you are not using a spread. My thoughts on this are that I believe PANW is a great company and IF it gets hit again on Earnings then I will start accumulating some shares for a longer term play. Ideally we can get a squeeze forming and get into some shares and IF we get a push before ER we can sell some to mitigate a big drop. IF the pop never comes that means less is built into the earnings report and if they have a good earnings report we should push higher.

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