The chart on the right shows us what happens in election years when the year before was +10% you can see we actually push up and through then begin a sell off in feb and bottom out in march.
The one on the left shows the same thing when a sitting president is running
An example of this VOTING VS WEIGHING is NFLX
Record high Revenue of 9.4 Bill and highest growth rate since q4 2021. net income +79% YoY
Valuations on the SPY have come down and we finally got our 5% pullback. Remember this happens on AVG every 3-4 months.
I still believe we are in a bull run and I am STARTING to absorb/accumulate companies and ETFS that I like.
An example is AMD! I told you guys on march 8th I was selling all my AMD – It was over valued – March 8th was the high of the move. Now we have pulled back 36%! To me, we are getting into a value area. THIS MEANS I AM STARTING TO ACQUIRE and will do so over time. We don’t know if this pull will be a 5% pull – 10% or more. But if we focus on buying good companies at good prices over time, we will win.
Please remember that we are not shooting all our bullets at once as we never know when the low comes in, but if we can acquire over time we will win! Expect the end of Q2 to start another rally into the election cycle.
However, we have an opportunity here for a short-term bounce as we are becoming oversold! This is the bounce I am trying to catch – most likely this will not be a bounce that turns into another run like we just had. Earnings would have to crush it across the board to increase valuations and I don’t think that will happen… but it could!
(think NFLX)
People aren’t buying houses so they aren’t buying things like fridges washing machines etc and this has led to HD -17% yoy in net income – biggest since 2009
An example of LT plays and finding places to ADD – I am STO puts against the 60 level on PYPL – I would LOVE to own PYPL down around 60 so if I get put the shares I will take them, If I do not I will collect the premium.
