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Market Outlook for Dec 4th – Dec 8th 2023

Happy Sunday TTU!

I had some time this weekend so I finished this weeks Market Outlook DDD early and wanted to get it out to everyone. Remember the historical trend for the first week of December is to be red. I will still long strong stocks but I am open for more of a pullback to get ready for the middle of the month push.

Possible plays –
COST – if this gives me any squeeze 30 minutes or above, I am in!
AMZN has a nice 78M TTM setup.
BAX 78M TTM
CPS – 195 – filled last week will play this one out with the scalping – this one is a great example of a break and reclaim. STOP out when the chart tells you to but if it reclaims jump right back in!
GOOGL – absorption play that I went over last week – starting a nice 30M squeeze as well.  Remember the rules on absorption plays cause it can break down quickly.

You can play META, SMCI and AMD as absorption play as well
ICB weekly – only thing I am watching is AI – Like AFRM last week this has extremely high short float and could give us a run into earnings.
ICB monthly is here – https://www.tc2000.com/~NBtLg6

IF the market is weak I will playing companies like TSLA that have a rev strat (1-2U possible 2D)

Long Term Portfolio update
INTC – I am starting to scale out of INTC and will bring it down to 15-20% position with trail stops in.
CPS – I have been playing this one for well over a year now and we are getting close to the ultimate target.  I do believe 30 is doable and the recent TPS pattern gave me the opportunity to add to this position.
GNRC – I picked up some more GNRC because someone mentioned to me that it was in a nice TPS on the 130. This allowed me to add back the position I sold and will keep half this position unless I get stopped out at b/e
MMM – you are coming into some TA resistance between 100-105. I’ll play this level as O/U
The NKE add back at 105 will sold this week and then over 114 next stop is 120.
CCI – This one just blasted through TA levels because of news of an activist investor.  I took 27% profit on partial, and I don’t think I’ll get that back. IF we do get a pull back, I’ll take it but I think this one is off to the races.
C – Amazing returns in a short time period and 47-50 are a technical level so I am playing that O/U
BAX will reach technical levels between 38-40 and so I will play o/u there
BABA – The original $80 purchases I have not stopped out of because I was able to sell some of these up into the 100 range. So im sitting on cost basis around $60. I am starting another tranche of long term positions here in the low 70s
AXP – this is a perfect example of when a stock doesn’t give you
Taking some 15% wins on PYPL between here and 65 – then playing that level as O/U – What this is finally doing is allowing the 60 dollar purchases cost basis to be lowered to the low 50s
The SWK add on the TPS strat will remain Long term unless trail stopped out at b/e
VFC – already took out 35% win on this win and will sell more into 19-20. I will then play 20 as O/U
VNO – This add back played out completely and now we wait on another set up. The bottom tier add back will remain long term unless it gets stopped out.
IWM is up 15% in 1 month – Scaling out of some of this but I want a pullback for the first week or 2 of December to get back in. IF we keep breaking up, I will pay up to get back in.
XBI is up 20% in less than a month and I will continue to scalp and scale this one as well. Next level is 81 then 83

Have a great week!!

Economic Data and Earnings Calendar For This Week:

2 Comments

  • Ethel

    February 3, 2024 - 3:08 pm

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  • Charlie

    April 29, 2024 - 4:10 am

    Your article helped me a lot, Thanks!

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